Thursday, 6 August 2015

Mr. Share The Agonized Agony Aunt



In a world of financial uncertainty, it’s good to have someone we can trust for reliable (if somewhat irreverent) advice. Once more we turn to our resident agony aunt for help with our investment woes.

My friend says I should invest in oil because, according to him, it’s the perfect time. What’s best, olive or vegetable?

Your friend is a wise man; you are not. As it happens, this could be a great time to invest in oil (although, not the sort you drizzle on a salad) but it could also be a terrible time. The crude oil market is very volatile right now and in the last year or so its value has fallen by close to 50%. Investors have been getting on board throughout this time, taking advantage of the low price and expecting it to climb, but it has continued to fall. Whether or not its current price is the “rock-bottom” one is anyone’s guess, but it could be expensive to speculate. One way to go about it could be to start taking small positions in relevant energy stocks and add over time.

Should I care about what’s happening with the stock markets in China? I mean, I live in and invest in the United States, so why would it affect me?

Think of it this way. The recent cluster-f**k in Greece was enough to send the markets into a free-fall not only in Europe, but also around the world. Well, we’re getting carried away. It was not really a free-fall, was it? Nonetheless, stock markets were impacted worldwide. Greece may be the cradle of civilization and the home of incredibly original soccer, but it’s still a tiny country with a GDP that is lower than several US states. China, on the other hand, is a global superpower, the second biggest in the world – well, by some measures, the first. If we draw an apocalyptic comparison (which seems apt) Greece is a serious case of the sniffles, one that made several people feel ill and then (hopefully) disappeared, whilst China is the Black Death.

How do the commodity markets work? I want to invest in several kilos of grain but have nowhere to store the mess.

This is tricky, but interesting nonetheless. The commodity markets allow you to invest in a number of commodities, such as grain. These markets began as a way for farmers to sell their harvest to investors and in the early days they would actually deliver a bag of grain to the trading floor so that buyers could sample it. This was a slow process, but the buyers soon realized that certain global events affected the price of the grain they had just bought, giving them an opportunity to sell it on for a profit or loss. From this, an entire market was established whereby trades were a form of speculation, as opposed to an actual purchase.

If you invest in a commodity you are sinking your money into the hope that it will retain its value or increase it, at which point you can sell it. You have no physical investment, but you are taking a position on a virtual market that has been around for more than 100 years, and in a product that is a big part of the economy and human civilization. It’s not like investing in stocks, though. The shares investors own may appreciate over time as their enterprises conquer markets and grow earnings. Betting the price of grain, chocolate, wheat, gold or oil will go up (or down) is mere speculation, not an investment in a wealth-creating venture. It’s a trade, period. Care to flip a coin instead?

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